Probably Stolen Events: Water Supply Crisis, Power Outage and Every Market Event Explained

Events are the news stories in your morning newspaper that change what goods sell for, for one to three days. A Water Supply Crisis makes water 50% more valuable, a Power Outage adds 66% to Energy Cells, a Material Surplus makes materials 25% cheaper. A new market event starts every three or four days on average, and most of them send an extra customer each day who wants exactly those goods. Stock up on water, Energy Cells and medical supplies while they are cheap, and you can sell into these events at a much better price.

How do events work in Probably Stolen?

Events start in the morning. From day 6 (day 1 if you skip the tutorial), the game checks every morning whether a new market event begins. The more events are already running, the lower the chance:

Events running	Chance of a new event
0	50%
1	35%
2	25%
3 or more	0%

• What you see: from day 8 the morning newspaper, The Bottomline Bulletin, lists every event that is running, with its headline and a short story. On Price Gouge and Mark Up it also says how many days are left; on Thin Margins and Red Ink it only warns on the last day. The Unsubscribed starting perk takes the newspaper away.
• How long: each event lasts a fixed number of days, from 1 to 3. When it ends it cannot come back for a few days.
• Prices: while an event runs, its percentage is added to the price of every item of that kind, on top of the retail markup and contraband markup. If two events touch the same goods, the percentages add up.
• Customers: most market events bring one extra customer every day they run, who walks in before your usual visitors. Event customers are also easier to haggle with.
• Opposite events: a shortage and a surplus of the same goods can run at the same time; their percentages simply add up.
• Tips add events: a tip from the Shady Customer or Word on the Street adds a new event a few days later, on top of the random ones, and it starts even when three events are already running. Buying tips therefore makes those events come more often.

What are all the market events in Probably Stolen?

There are fifteen random market events, plus two that only start from a tip or a story. They fall into six groups by the goods they move. The card for each event shows how long it lasts, how often it comes in an average game, every price change and the customer it sends.

Water events: Water Supply Crisis, Minor Water Shortage and Water Supply Surplus

• Water Supply Crisis

  “Breakdown At Treatment Plant Threatens Water Supply”

  Lasts

  3 days

  How often

  every ~37 days

  Prices

  • Water +50%
  • Water Ration +50%
  • Beverage +45%
  • Water Purification Supply +40%

  Extra customer each day

  • Spacer · 50% · buys and sells: Water Ration, Water · budget 100–120
  • Corporate Representative · 50% · buys and sells: Water Ration, Water · budget 450–500

• Minor Water Shortage

  “Scheduled Maintenance To Proceed At Water Treatment Plant”

  Lasts

  2 days

  How often

  every ~44 days

  Prices

  • Water +35%
  • Water Ration +35%
  • Beverage +30%
  • Water Purification Supply +25%

  Extra customer each day

  • Lower Level Citizen · buys and sells: Water Ration, Water · budget 150–200

• Water Supply Surplus

  “Miners Return from Ice Asteroid!”

  Lasts

  2 days

  How often

  every ~40 days

  Prices

  • Water −25%
  • Water Ration −25%
  • Beverage −20%
  • Water Purification Supply −15%

  Extra customer each day

  • Ice Miner · sells

The two shortages are the best events in the game for a water seller. Every day of a Water Supply Crisis, a Spacer or a Corporate Representative comes to buy water and Water Rations, and the Corporate Representative carries 450–500 credits. Keep a stock of bottled High-Quality Water ready, because by the time you read about the crisis it has already started. See the water guide for making it.

The Water Supply Surplus works the other way: water is worth 25% less and an Ice Miner brings High-Quality Water to sell you at a wholesale discount. Buy, do not sell.

Power events: Power Outage, Who Turned Out The Lights? and Power Plant Maintenance

• Power Outage

  “Low Power In The Lower Levels”

  Lasts

  2 days

  How often

  every ~83 days

  Prices

  • Energy Cell +66%

  Extra customer each day

  • Lower Level Citizen · buys: Energy Cell · budget 150–200

• Who Turned Out The Lights?

  Lasts

  2 days

  How often

  every ~160 days

  Prices

  • Energy Cell +50%
  • Weapon +25%
  • Ammunition +25%

  Extra customer each day

  • Upper Level Resident · buys: Energy Cell · budget 325–400
  • Panicked Shopkeeper · 25% · buys: Armor, Weapon · budget 150–300

• Power Plant Maintenance

  “Scheduled Power Plant Maintenance”

  Lasts

  1 day

  How often

  every ~55 days

  Prices

  • Energy Cell +33%

  Extra customer each day

  • Lower Level Citizen · buys: Energy Cell · budget 150–200

Energy Cells are the goods here. A Power Outage adds 66%, the biggest single price change among random events. Only Who Turned Out The Lights? is a real blackout: chargers stop unless you own Power Line Hijack. The power guide covers what to do during a blackout.

Food and seed events

• Bad Nutrifruit Harvest

  “Poor Nutrifruit Harvest Devastates”

  Lasts

  3 days

  How often

  every ~40 days

  Prices

  • Food +50%

  Extra customer each day

  • Food Buyer · buys: Food · budget 75–100

• Nutrifruit Seed Shortage

  “Nutrifruit Seed Heist!”

  Lasts

  2 days

  How often

  every ~37 days

  Prices

  • Food +33%
  • Seed +50%

  Extra customer each day

  • Farmer · buys and sells: Seed · budget 100–150

• Nutrifruit Harvest

  “Massive Nutrifruit Farm Harvest Season”

  Lasts

  3 days

  How often

  Only from the information dealer's tip

  Prices

  • Food −20%

The Bad Nutrifruit Harvest also posts a Soup Kitchen request for five Peat. Nutrifruit Harvest, the only event that makes food cheaper, never starts on its own: it only comes from the Shady Customer's tip.

Medical events

• Medical Supplies Shortage

  “Counterfeit Medical Supplies Discovered!”

  Lasts

  2 days

  How often

  every ~44 days

  Prices

  • Medical +50%

  Extra customer each day

  • Pharmacist · buys: Medical · budget 150–200

• Oxymore Addiction On The Rise

  Lasts

  2 days

  How often

  every ~121 days

  Prices

  • Medical +25%

  Extra customer each day

  • Clinic Volunteer · 33% · gives away free
  • Desperate Addict · 22.11% · buys: Substance · budget 100–125

During the Oxymore wave a Clinic Volunteer may hand you Naloxgone Injector for free. Medical Supplies Shortage posts three requests for Medical Supplies (Common), and the Black Market one pays far more than the other two.

Material and household events

• Meteor Shower

  Lasts

  3 days

  How often

  Only after the lucky Scavenger's visit

  Prices

  • Material +50%

  Extra customer each day

  • Foreman · buys: Material · budget 400

• Construction Projects

  Lasts

  3 days

  How often

  every ~42 days

  Prices

  • Material +30%

  Extra customer each day

  • Foreman · buys: Material · budget 400

• Material Surplus

  “Mining Expedition Returns”

  Lasts

  1 day

  How often

  every ~37 days

  Prices

  • Material −25%

  Extra customer each day

  • Miner · buys and sells: Substance · budget 65–75

• Household Item Surplus

  “Hidden Storeroom Excavated!”

  Lasts

  1 day

  How often

  every ~42 days

  Prices

  • Household Good −20%

  Extra customer each day

  • Scavenger · sells

Construction Projects and the Meteor Shower both send a Foreman with 400 credits for materials. The Meteor Shower only happens the day after a lucky Scavenger leaves you an Engineering Foundry Supply Crate, which is also exactly what its requests ask for.

Other events: Lower Level Lynching and Tourist Influx

• Lower Level Lynching

  “Mob Justice in the Lower Levels!”

  Lasts

  1 day

  How often

  every ~74 days

  Prices

  • Weapon +33%
  • Ammunition +33%
  • Armor +33%

  Extra customer each day

  • Angry Citizen · buys: Armor, Weapon · budget 75–150

• Tourist Influx

  “Which Way To The Pool?”

  Lasts

  2 days

  How often

  every ~57 days

  Prices

  No price change

  Extra customer each day

  • Tourist · 33% · buys: Food, Substance, Water, Water Ration · budget 180–250
  • Station Tourist · 22.11% · buys: Weapon · budget 200–300
  • Station Tourist · 44.89% · buys: Junk, Makeshift, Material · budget 125–200

Tourist Influx changes no prices but brings tourists with 125–300 credits: one buys food, water and substances, the other two buy souvenirs (weapons, or junk and materials).

Which goods go up or down during events?

This table turns the cards around: pick the goods you hold and see which events help or hurt them. Faction operations that actually happen are included.

Goods	Events that move the price
Energy Cell	+66% Power Outage · 2 days +50% Who Turned Out The Lights? · 2 days +33% Power Plant Maintenance · 1 day
Food	+50% Bad Nutrifruit Harvest · 3 days +33% Nutrifruit Seed Shortage · 2 days −20% Nutrifruit Harvest · 3 days
Seed	+50% Nutrifruit Seed Shortage · 2 days
Medical	+50% Medical Supplies Shortage · 2 days +25% Oxymore Addiction On The Rise · 2 days
Water	+50% Water Supply Crisis · 3 days +35% Minor Water Shortage · 2 days −25% Water Supply Surplus · 2 days
Water Ration	+50% Water Supply Crisis · 3 days +35% Minor Water Shortage · 2 days −25% Water Supply Surplus · 2 days
Material	+50% Meteor Shower · 3 days +30% Construction Projects · 3 days −25% Material Surplus · 1 day
Beverage	+45% Water Supply Crisis · 3 days +30% Minor Water Shortage · 2 days −20% Water Supply Surplus · 2 days
Water Purification Supply	+40% Water Supply Crisis · 3 days +25% Minor Water Shortage · 2 days −15% Water Supply Surplus · 2 days
Weapon	+33% Lower Level Lynching · 1 day +25% Who Turned Out The Lights? · 2 days +25% Increased Weapons Demand · 3 days · Revolution −35% Illegal Weapon Shipment · 2 days · Black Market
Ammunition	+33% Lower Level Lynching · 1 day +25% Who Turned Out The Lights? · 2 days +25% Increased Weapons Demand · 3 days · Revolution −35% Illegal Weapon Shipment · 2 days · Black Market
Armor	+33% Lower Level Lynching · 1 day
Household Good	−20% Household Item Surplus · 1 day −40% Household Relief Drive · 2 days · Upper Levels

• Best shortages to sell into: Energy Cells (+66%), water (+50%), food (+50%), medical supplies (+50%), seeds (+50%) and materials (+50% after a Meteor Shower).
• Best surpluses to buy in: household goods (−40% during Household Relief Drive), weapons and ammunition (−35% during Illegal Weapon Shipment), water (−25%) and materials (−25%).

The percentage is added to the item's market price, so a +50% event on a 100-credit item makes it 150 before haggling. See money making for how markups and haggling stack on top.

How often does each event happen?

Over an average game a market event is running on about half of all days. The table shows how often each event comes and how many days it is running in total. Faction operations are included, because they are far more common than any market event.

Event	How often	Days running
Household Relief Drive · Upper Levels	every ~8 days	24.6%
Increased Weapons Demand · Revolution	every ~9 days	35%
Illegal Weapon Shipment · Black Market	every ~14 days	14.4%
Nutrifruit Seed Shortage	every ~37 days	5.4%
Water Supply Crisis	every ~37 days	8.1%
Material Surplus	every ~37 days	2.7%
Bad Nutrifruit Harvest	every ~40 days	7.5%
Water Supply Surplus	every ~40 days	4.9%
Household Item Surplus	every ~42 days	2.4%
Construction Projects	every ~42 days	7.2%
Medical Supplies Shortage	every ~44 days	4.5%
Minor Water Shortage	every ~44 days	4.5%
Power Plant Maintenance	every ~55 days	1.8%
Tourist Influx	every ~57 days	3.5%
Lower Level Lynching	every ~74 days	1.4%
Power Outage	every ~83 days	2.4%
Oxymore Addiction On The Rise	every ~121 days	1.7%
Who Turned Out The Lights?	every ~160 days	1.2%

Weapons and ammunition swing the most often: Increased Weapons Demand pushes them up a third of the time and Illegal Weapon Shipment pulls them down for two days every couple of weeks. A single water shortage, by contrast, comes about once every five or six weeks, so do not build a water business around waiting for one.

What are faction operations?

Faction operations are events started by the factions. The game schedules them four days ahead, and they show up in the newspaper like any other event when they start.

• Security Budget Increase

  Security · 1 day

  Happens once, on day 10, and changes nothing you can see.

• Increased Weapons Demand

  Revolution · 3 days

  • Weapon +25%
  • Ammunition +25%

  Weapons and ammunition sell for more. The most common event in the game: it runs about a third of all days.

• Household Relief Drive

  Upper Levels · 2 days

  • Household Good −40%

  Household goods sell for 40% less, so buy them cheap and hold them until it ends.

• Illegal Weapon Shipment

  Black Market · 2 days

  • Weapon −35%
  • Ammunition −35%

  Weapons and ammunition sell for 35% less: a bad time to sell guns, a good time to buy them.

In the current version only four operations ever start.iNot confirmed in game yet; check it yourself. Increased Weapons Demand repeats from about day 12, Household Relief Drive from the first week, and Illegal Weapon Shipment from about day 14. Security Budget Increase happens once, around day 10. Riots, strikes, raids, the Station-wide Crackdown, Martial Law and the Gang War are in the game but do not start.

Trusted (Security reputation 60) and Friend of the Revolution (Revolution reputation 60) warn you about those factions' operations in advance, so with Friend of the Revolution you see every Increased Weapons Demand coming.

How can you know an event is coming?

Ordinary market events cannot be predicted: the game only decides on the morning they start. A tip works differently: it adds a new event a few days later and tells you when it starts, so you get both the event and the warning. Three things give you advance notice:

• The Shady Customer: he sells a tip for 50 credits. He comes from day 14 (from the start if you skipped the tutorial): always once a week has passed since his last visit, and from the fourth day on he has a 25% chance each day. After he leaves, the event is added, you get an Intel Slip, and the event appears on your Calendar with its start day and length.
• Word on the Street: this Lower Levels perk (reputation 60) adds a random market event 2–3 days later on 4% of days and gives you a free Intel Slip for it.
• Trusted and Friend of the Revolution: advance notice of Security and Revolution operations.

The Shady Customer's tips cover seven events:

Event	Chance	Starts in (days)	Lasts
Nutrifruit Harvest	11.76%	1–4	2–4
Bad Nutrifruit Harvest	17.65%	3	3
Medical Supplies Shortage	17.65%	1–4	2–4
Household Item Surplus	11.76%	1	2
Material Surplus	11.76%	1–3	1–2
Water Supply Crisis	17.65%	3	3
Water Supply Surplus	11.76%	2	2

A tip is the only way to get Nutrifruit Harvest, and a tip ignores the three-event limit. The best tips to buy are the water and medical shortages: three days of warning is enough to fill bottles or buy Medical Supplies (Common) at normal prices.

How do you make money from events?

1. Keep a small stock of the shortage goods. Water, Energy Cells, Medical Supplies (Common) and food are what the biggest price jumps hit. Charged Energy Cells and High-Quality Water keep, so build a stock in quiet weeks.
2. Sell during shortages, buy during surpluses. During a Material Surplus or Household Item Surplus the event customer sells at a wholesale discount; buy and hold the goods until the next shortage or construction project.
3. Do not dump weapons during an Illegal Weapon Shipment. Wait for Increased Weapons Demand, which comes back about every nine days.
4. Fill event requests. With Marketplace Requests (Wild's Network), several events post requests that pay well:

Event	Posted by	Deliver	Credits	Reputation
Bad Nutrifruit Harvest	Soup Kitchen Coordinator · Lower Levels	5 × Peat	187	+8
Medical Supplies Shortage	Lower Levels Charity Clinic · Lower Levels	3 × Medical Supplies (Common)	60	+8
	Upper Levels General Hospital · Upper Levels	3 × Medical Supplies (Common)	100	+3
	Shady Merchant · Black Market	3 × Medical Supplies (Common)	360	+3
Construction Projects	Lower Level Construction Crew · Lower Levels	5 × Scrap Metal	75	+6
	Shady Broker · Black Market	5 × Scrap Metal	100	+3
Meteor Shower	Lower Levels Engineers · Lower Levels	1 × Engineering Foundry Supply Crate	350	+10
	Upper Levels Community Manager · Upper Levels	1 × Engineering Foundry Supply Crate	500	+5
Evidence Locker Break-In!	Head of Security for Lower Levels · Security	1 × Security Department Evidence Locker	400	+10
	Unknown · Black Market	1 × Security Department Evidence Locker	700	+5

A request posted on the first day of its event lasts for that day and the next one; Soup Kitchen gives one more day.iNot confirmed in game yet; check it yourself. Delivering stolen goods to a request counts as fencing.

5. Buy tips for the shortages. At 50 credits, a water or medical tip pays for itself with a single sale.

Which events are part of the story?

Some news only appears at fixed times or after a story choice:

• Evidence Locker Break-In! on day 7: a Thief sells you the Security Department Evidence Locker, and two requests offer 400 (Security) or 700 (Black Market) for it.
• Lottery Draw every Saturday from day 20 (from the first week with Gambling Addiction). See the luck guide.
• Meteor Shower after the lucky Scavenger's visit.
• pastel's Nutrifruit Secret Leaked! if Eleanor leaks her research: Nutrifruit Seed Shortage never happens again after that.
• News about wanted criminals and Lou's story only appear in the newspaper and change no prices.

Rent day and mortgage payments are also events, kept off the newspaper but shown on the Calendar.