Probably Stolen Beginner Guide: Surviving Your First Two Weeks

To survive your first two weeks in Probably Stolen, start as the Apprentice, keep the next rent payment set aside at all times, buy insurance once it is offered, and let stolen goods sit for a few nights before you sell them. Everything else, from machines to contraband, can wait until the Day 14 rent is paid.

This Probably Stolen beginner guide follows the order things actually happen in a first run. It assumes Mark Up (Normal) difficulty, which is where most numbers below come from. If you have not picked a start yet, read the starting scenarios guide first.

What does a normal day look like?

The loop is the same every day, and most early mistakes come from rushing one of these four steps.

The Display Case pulls in buyers for whatever is on show, and neon signs pull in sellers of their category. An Apprentice starts with a small stock of food and household goods, so put some of it in the case before you open the shutter on Day 1.

How many random customers you get depends on store attractiveness. The base is 250, and the game hands out one customer at 200 and another at 250, so a clean store sits exactly on the line. Let trash build up past the second level and a 5%-per-level penalty drops you under it. Empty the trash before you sleep.

Days 1–7: how do you pay the first rent?

Rent is 200 on Day 7, and you start with 550. That sounds comfortable until you spend 300 on a machine and have a slow Saturday.

1. Day 1. Stock the Display Case, open, and follow the Mentor. Sell the starting Roll of Toilet Paper and Tube of Toothpaste at a fair price rather than holding out for a high one.
2. Every morning. Subtract the next rent from your cash and treat only the rest as spendable. Unsold stock is not money until a customer pays for it.
3. When the Mentor gives you the Magnifying Glass. Use the Magnifying Glass on anything that looks off. Catching a fake gets you a discount; buying one leaves you with junk.
4. When insurance appears in your services. Buy it. The fee scales with what you own, so it is a few credits a night at this stage.
5. Day 7 (Sunday). Pay the 200. On Mark Up and Price Gouge you also hold one Landlord grace, which lets a missed payment roll into the next week once. Do not plan around it.

Days 8–14: Augs, Wild's Network and the second rent

The second week adds systems faster than money. Rent on Day 14 is 210, and nightly services such as power and janitorial creep up by one credit every ten days.

1. Around the end of week one. Joe Wild's Network opens up. Most upgrades cost hundreds, and you can pay part of the price in Wild's favor, which you earn from trades. Window-shop now and buy after rent.
2. Day 12. The Mentor warns you about Augs and gives you the Rampart Dual-Action Shotgun. The first Aug walks in on Day 13, a second on Day 18.
3. Before you shoot. If you are not sure, an Aug Scanner from Dr. Jackson confirms an Aug with 100% accuracy. Shooting a normal customer is logged as Manslaughter and costs reputation with four factions at once.
4. Day 14 (Sunday). Pay the 210. From here, each rent is 5% higher than the last; by Day 49 it is 266.

If you want a target beyond survival, the store itself costs 12,000 on Mark Up and that price does not move until Day 50. The deed and mortgage guide shows how far ahead you are.

What should you spend your first profit on?

Spend on things that bring in customers or protect what you own, in that order. A machine only earns once you have the stock, power and time to run it.

• A neon sign for what you already sell. A Food Neon Sign brings more sellers of food to the counter, which keeps your Display Case full without trips out.
• Insurance, every night. It costs your total stock value divided by 400, plus 3. Even with 2,000 credits of goods that is 8 a night.
• A Toolbox. It holds your tools and lets you switch between them with the number keys 1 to 9, so you are not digging through your inventory while a customer waits.

Leave production for week three. A run that reaches Day 21 with a cash buffer can afford to experiment; one that buys a machine on Day 6 often cannot.

How hard should you haggle?

Haggling is where beginners lose both money and reputation without noticing. The bargain buttons are 10, 25, 50 and 75%, and the game treats the two directions very differently.

• Discounts always land. Offering a customer a better deal is always accepted, raises that customer's budget, and multiplies the reputation you earn from the trade.
• Markups are a gamble. Acceptance starts at 100 minus twice the percentage: about 80% for a 10% push, 50% for 25%, and nothing for 50% unless your reputation helps. A rejected push can also make the customer leave.
• Greed costs standing. Pushing the price turns the trade's reputation gain into a loss, up to five times the normal amount on the biggest push.

The practical rule: take a 10% push on items you know the value of, and give small discounts to Lower Levels and Upper Levels customers whose reputation you want early. The factions guide explains why those two matter.

Sleep or scavenge?

After closing you can sleep or head out. The Dumping Ground is free stock, but it is not free.

You get five search attempts per visit, and searching can hurt you. More importantly, any night out costs you one random customer the next day. With only two or three random customers a day early on, that is a real share of your income. Go scavenging when your shelves are thin; stay in when they are full.

While you sleep, machines run and stolen goods cool down. That second part matters more than it sounds.

Stolen goods and your first inspection

Anything worth more than 17 credits that a customer sold you hot arrives with Heat: 25, 50, 75 or 100 depending on its value. Heat drops by 18 every night, and during an inspection each stolen item is found with a chance equal to its Heat. A 100-Heat item needs six nights to cool completely.

Contraband is a separate system. Inspectors always find it unless it is hidden or locked away, and a Critical item gets you arrested. Routine inspections only start once your trafficking and fencing crimes add up to 50, so a clean first week will not see one. The contraband, Heat and inspection guide has a calculator for both.

Five mistakes that end first runs

• Buying a machine on Saturday. Check the calendar first. A machine that pays for itself in two weeks does not help if rent is due tomorrow.
• Skipping insurance. The theft chance compounds every uninsured night.
• Selling hot goods the next morning. Wait out the Heat, or sell to someone who will not bring Security to your door.
• Guessing at Augs. One wrong shot opens a Manslaughter case and sours four factions.
• Ignoring the Business Permit. The Mentor raises it on Day 24, and officials start visiting weekly from Day 38. Budget 1,500 on Mark Up.

Once the Day 14 rent is paid, your run is past the dangerous part. From there, the Probably Stolen wiki home links every system guide, from chemistry to endings.