Probably Stolen Contraband and Heat: Inspections, Bribes and Smuggler's Bay

Contraband and stolen goods are two separate risks in Probably Stolen. Stolen items carry Heat, and an inspector finds each one with a chance equal to its Heat, which drops by 18 every night. Contraband is found every time unless it is hidden or locked away, so the rule is simple: let stolen goods cool, and keep contraband in a Smuggler's Bay.

The calculator above turns an item's base value into its starting Heat and the nights it needs to cool, and works out the Shady Inspector's bribe for any day and Security reputation.

What are the contraband tiers?

Every contraband item has one of four tiers. Higher tiers sell for more and cost more when an inspector finds them.

1. Low
   +35%

   Found in an inspection: you get a warning.

2. Mid
   +70%

   Found: confiscated.

3. High
   +100%

   Found: confiscated and fined its value.

4. Critical
   +150%

   Found: arrested, store closed for good.

You also buy contraband cheaply: sellers knock off half the tier's markup, so a Mid item comes in at 35% under value and sells at 70% over. Some examples from the item database:

• Low: 10mm Ammunition
• Mid: Vial of "Dream Dust", Ironcraft 10, Disposable Keycard (Security)
• High: Rampart Dual-Action Shotgun, Disposable Keycard (Command)
• Critical: Neural Core Module (Uncapped)

Selling contraband also pays in reputation. Trades involving higher-tier contraband multiply the reputation the trade earns with the customer's faction.

How does Heat work?

Heat applies to stolen goods, not contraband. When you buy an item that a customer stole, it gets a starting Heat based on its base value:

Heat drops by 18 each night. You do not need to wait for zero: a 100-Heat item is at 46 after three nights, which means a 46% chance it is found if an inspector comes that day. Hot goods also give a bigger reputation boost when you sell them, from 1.5 times at low Heat up to 3 times at high Heat, with the customer's faction.

A safe routine for hot goods and contraband

1. When you buy it. Check the base value against the table above, or enter it in the calculator, so you know how many nights it needs.
2. Before you sleep. Move contraband and anything still above about 25 Heat into a Smuggler's Bay or locked storage. Nothing hot stays on the counter overnight.
3. While it cools. Sell legal stock and let the nights do the work. Each night removes 18 Heat.
4. When you sell. Prefer Black Market and Revolution customers for contraband: they create far less evidence than an Upper Levels buyer for the same sale.

When do inspections happen?

Inspections do not start until your trafficking and fencing crimes add up to 50. After that, an inspector comes every three to five days. Your Security reputation changes the schedule:

• Trusted (+60): the gap between inspections grows by two to four days.
• VIP (+100): no more inspections at all.
• No Stone Unturned (−80): inspections come a day sooner, and you only get strict inspectors.

Joe Wild's Inspection Early Warning Service warns you the night before a regular inspection, but not before a surprise one.

What does an inspector find?

An inspector searches everything that is not hidden, locked or in search-proof storage. Contraband in the open is always found. Each stolen item is found with a chance equal to its current Heat. A lazy inspector skips the trash can, and with luck an inspector can overlook a whole batch.

The outcome depends on the worst thing found:

• Critical contraband: you are arrested, unless you hold Clemency, which turns it into a warning and a reputation loss.
• High: confiscated, and you are fined the items' value.
• Mid, or stolen goods: confiscated.
• Low: a warning; you keep it.

Every item found also costs Security reputation: 1, plus its contraband tier, plus a step for its stolen value, up to 25 per item. A clean inspection earns +3 Security, which is a cheap way to climb if your back room is well organized.

How do you use Smuggler's Bay?

A Smuggler's Bay is disguised storage that inspectors do not search. Anything inside it is safe from an inspection, whether it is contraband or still hot.

• Smuggler's Bay: sold by Dr. Jackson. The Fence starts with one.
• Mini Smuggler's Bay: a smaller version. The Chemist starts with one.
• Smuggler's Bay (Modified): a modified bay with more room.

The bay keeps goods safe from inspections, not from your own mistakes. Contraband left on the counter or in the Display Case is still in the open. Move it into the bay before you sleep, not when the inspector walks in.

Should you bribe the inspector?

Only the Shady Security Inspector takes bribes. The price is 100 plus twice the day, minus twice your Security reputation, between 40 and 400:

Bribes leave a trail. Each payment adds to a hidden tracker that falls by 5 a night; once it reaches 250, the game records a Bribery crime worth 250 against you. After your Bribery total reaches 500, the game also switches you to a fixed inspector type. Bribe when the alternative is a High or Critical find, not to save a Mid item.

How does a Security investigation work?

An investigation is not an inspection. Every crime you commit adds value to your Security record, and once the total reaches 100, Security starts collecting evidence each night:

When evidence reaches 100, an officer is sent. The sentence depends on your total crime value when the officer arrives: under 300 is a fine equal to that value plus −10 Security (arrest if you cannot pay), 300 to 1,499 is arrest, and 1,500 or more is execution. But the officer needs at least 95 evidence to act. Below that, the case closes for lack of evidence, with −20 Security.

Crimes are not permanent. While evidence stays under 80, each crime on your record drops by 20 every night. Several things change how fast evidence builds:

• Who you sell to: contraband sold to Black Market customers creates half the crime value, to Revolution customers a third, and to the Cartel none. Lower Levels customers count half once you reach Tight Lips at +80.
• Perks: Intimidating cuts crime value by a third; Blabbermouth adds a third.
• Reputation: Trusted halves evidence growth; Watchlist multiplies it by 1.2, Most Wanted by 1.5, and the Upper Levels' Petition to Security by another 1.5.

How does Wild's Network protect you?

Joe Wild sells the counters. Prices below are for Mark Up and rise 1.5 times on Thin Margins and twice on Red Ink:

• Wild's Fixers (350 / 450 / 550). Each night they cut every crime on your record by 15, 20 or 25% and then by a flat 50, 150 or 400, for a nightly fee of 25, 45 or 70.
• Evidence Removal (500). Destroys all collected evidence and derails the current investigation. 14-day cooldown. Use it the night before an officer arrives to drop evidence under 95.
• Clemency (250). A one-time pass: the next Critical find that would get you arrested becomes a warning.
• Inspection Early Warning (300). A nightly fee buys you warning of regular inspections.

For how each faction punishes or rewards this kind of trade, see the factions guide. The endings guide explains Arrested, Executed and Framed in full, and the Probably Stolen wiki links everything else.